Tsunami, Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Volcanic Eruptions and other Natural and Man-Made Hazards and Disasters - by Dr. George Pararas Carayannis

Tsunami, Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Volcanic Eruptions, Climate Change and other Natural and Man-Made Hazards and Disasters - Disaster Archaeology,

Tsunami, Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Volcanic Eruptions and other Natural and Man-Made Hazards and Disasters

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DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
Overview of Basic Principles and Methodology

George Pararas-Carayannis

Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

The destructive impact of recent natural disasters on many regions of the world has brought into focus the need for proper risk assessment, planning, preparedness and the implementation of early warning systems. The great earthquake and tsunami of December 26 2004 near Sumatra affected 13 countries bordering the Indian Ocean and was responsible for the deaths of more than 250,000 people. The great earthquake of 28 March 2005 in the same general area caused additional devastation. The hurricanes of 2005, and Katrina in particular, destroyed the city of New Orleans and other well-developed communities in the Gulf of Texas. The great earthquake of October 8, 2005 in Northern Pakistan and Kashmir was a reminder of the degree of devastation and human suffering disasters can cause.

Regrettably, disasters such as these occurred in regions known to be vulnerable but where not proper risk assessment studies had been made and no adequate plans for preparedness or mitigation existed. If such studies had been properly made and plans were in place, the death toll and destruction would have been minimized.

Unequivocally, disaster mitigation requires accurate and expeditious assessment of all potential risks, the issuance of prompt warnings, and programs of preparedness that will assure warning effectiveness and public safety. The methodology for assessing the potential risks that threaten each region of the world requires adequate understanding of the physics of each type of disaster, a good and expeditious collection of historical data of past events, and an accurate interpretation of this data as to what future impact will be. Since each type of disaster results from different sources, the risk assessment methodology will vary accordingly.

Because of the extensive and specialized nature of disasters, it is outside the scope of the present report to provide a detailed analysis of how all risks are determined for planning, zoning, construction or evacuation purposes. Each disaster requires separate treatment and analysis. The construction of important critical structures, such as nuclear power plants, requires the adaptation of very conservative design criteria. This report provides only a brief overview of general principles that apply to the risk assessment of all types of disasters. In the present report, disasters are examined from a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on general techniques that must be used in assessing risks, with emphasis on mitigation, preparedness and public education.

 

 

 

 

 

Satellite image of Banda Aceh, in Sumatra, showing the extent of inundation and destruction from the tsunami of December 26, 2004

The Hurricane Surge Protective Defense Works in New Orleans were insufficiently designed to prevent the flooding of hurricane Katrina. Levees were breached or failed at considerable distance inland from the shore of Lake Pontchartrain

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

Overview of Basic Principles and Methodology

TABLE OF CONTENTS

UNDERSTANDING DISASTERS

Natural Disasters
Man-Made Disasters
Natural Disasters with Anthropogenic Contribution

Global Warming
Other Anthropogenic Impact
Rare Disasters

Need to Mitigate Disaster Impacts
Need for International Cooperation
Need for Advance Planning

1. REGIONAL IDENTIFICATION OF DISASTER RISKS
1a. Development of Historical Databases

2. STATISTICAL METHODS IN ESTABLISHING DISASTER RECURRENCE AND SEVERITY
2a. Disaster Frequency
2b. Statistics of Extreme Events

3. DISASTER MODELING STUDIES

3a. Physical Scale Modeling of Disasters
3b. Mathematical Modeling of Disasters
3b1. Tsunami Modeling
3b2. Hurricane (Typhoon) and Storm Surge Modeling
3b3. Hurricane Surge Modeling
3b4. Earthquake Disaster Modeling
3b5. Modeling Volcanic Eruptions
3b6. Tornado Modeling and Forecasting
3b7. Accuracy of Numerical Modeling

4. DISASTER RISK MAPPING

4a. Variation and Acceptability of Risk
4b. Microzonation of disaster risks
4c. Map Scale Considerations

5. LAND USE ANALYSIS


5a. Loss Estimation Methodology
5b. Public Safety
5c. Transportation Systems Construction or Modification
5d. Sitting of Infrastructure Facilities
5e. Protective Defense Works

6. ENSURING THE SAFETY AND RELIABILITY OF IMPORTANT INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES

6a. Engineering Design Adequacy
6b. Need for Proper Building Codes and Engineering

7. SAFETY PLAN DURING AND AFTER A DISASTER

7a. Post Disaster Recovery Plan

8. DISASTER IMPACT MITIGATION THROUGH PREPAREDNESS AND PLANNING

8a. Public Education
8b. Disaster Warning Systems

REFERENCES

To read more about disaster risk assessment, you may purchase this report by clicking on the "select" link below. (45 pages, fully illustrated in pdf format)

 

The 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines affected the earth's global warming and a higher average temperature in that particular year

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Links to other Pages

The Big One - The Next Great California Earthquake (A new edition of the book)

Now available from Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other major bookstores. A signed by the author copy can be also ordered by contacting directly by email Aston Forbes Press.

Other Miscellaneous Non-technical Writings

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