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International
Cooperation in the Field of Tsunami Research and Warning
George
Pararas-Carayannis
(Excerpts
from a presentation at the Second International Tsunami Workshop
on the Technical Aspects of Tsunami Warning Systems, Tsunami
Analysis, Preparedness, Observation and Instrumentation. Novosibirsk,
USSR, 4-5 August 1989 . Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
Workshop Report No. 58 - Supplement. )
Introduction
Tsunami disasters
have posed a major threat to the coastal populations of the Pacific
and of inland seas. In the past four decades alone, tsunamis
have been responsible for the loss of thousands of lives and
of millions in property damage (Pararas-Carayannis, 1982). Although
advances have been made in our understanding of the tsunami phenomenon
and we have established effective international cooperation in
warning systems, these advances have been offset by population
growth in the different countries particularly because of the
development of the coastal zones. Thus, the tsunami risk and
vulnerability of the people living in the coastal areas have
increased and will continue to increase. More than ever, international
cooperation is needed to mitigate the effects of the tsunami
disasters.
Recently, the United
Nations passed a resolution designating the 1990's as the Decade,
during which the international community will enhance cooperation
in natural disaster mitigation. The objective of the Decade is
to reduce loss of life, property damage and the social and economic
disruption associated with natural disasters. The~goal of the
Decade is to improve the capability to mitigate the impact of
natural disasters, particularly through the use of early warning
systems, through proper training and education, through dissemination
and application of existing knowledge and information, and through
proper scientific and engineering research. It is recognized
that these goals can be achieved by the concerted action of nations,
and will require international programs of cooperation and assistance
to acquire the necessary knowledge and to apply the results.
Of all the natural
disasters, the tsunami disaster has probably received more attention
in the mitigation of its effects. This is because, in contrast
to other natural disasters which have localized effects, tsunamis
have affected adversely the coastal regions of many nations far
away from the region of their origin.
The Tsunami Warning
System in the Pacific is an example of how the tsunami disaster
can be mitigated through international cooperation, concerted
research, the sharing of knowledge and information, and meetings
and workshops such as these. We should take pride in knowing
that our international cooperative efforts to mitigate the tsunami
disaster started over 25 years ago, long before the Decade was
proclaimed, and that tsunami is probably the only disaster that
has been dealt so effectively on an international scale. This
has been made possible through the leadership of IOC in forming
the ITSU Group, and the generosity of the member nations in contributing
their resources and sharing their knowledge and information (Pararas-Carayannis,
1988 b).
Let us take a look
of how the tsunami disaster can be mitigated further through
continued international cooperation. International cooperation
will be necessary in many areas. More specifically in:
Scientific and Engineering
Research
Evaluation and Prediction
Capability
Development of the
Pacific and Regional Warning Systems
Development of Operational
and Emergency Preparedness
Development of Planning
and Zoning Criteria
Public Education and
Awareness
Scientific and Engineering
Research
Central to the successful
implementation of the principles of the International Decade
in the reduction of the effects of the tsunami disaster is the
undertaking of appropriate applied-type of scientific and engineering
research. Note that I use the word applied. Theoretical type
of research is useful in understanding the phenomenon itself,
but it does not result in hazard mitigation. Our goal should
be to define and segregate an appropriate applied-type of research
program and to develop engineering standards. It will be necessary
to choose study topics that focus attention on specific remaining
problems.
International cooperation,
through a group such as ours, will be needed to identify such
problems and allow an~terdisciplinary approach to this solution
without unnecessary overlap or dispersion of effort. Furthermore,
through international cooperation the results of such studies
would be shared and applied uniformly for the common good.
For example, the suggestion
was made at the beginning of the Tsunami Symposium that we standardize
the methodology of determining the tsunami risk and that we apply
standardized methods of determining tsunami inundation and the
delineation of evacuation zones. This can be done through the
use of appropriate numerical modeling and standardization of
engineering criteria. Through such standardization and international
cooperation, nations threatened by tsunamis could develop proper
coastal management policies.
Evaluation and Prediction
Capability
An area where international
cooperation will prove to be most valuable will be in the further
development of tsunami evaluation and prediction capability using
current technology of satellite data telemetry and communications,
and use of microcomputers. Adequate state of the art seismic
and water level instrumentation, rapid telemetry and telecommunications
are needed, both for data acquisition and for warning dissemination.
These are the most important components for an effective national
or regional Tsunami Warning System. The Pacific Tsunami Warning
System presently makes use of an extensive seismic and water
level instrumentation network that has been made possible through
the generous support of member nations of ITSU, through cooperative
programs between many agencies and national governments, and
through programs such as the International Tropical Ocean Global
Atmosphere (TOGA) Sea Level Program (Pararas Carayannis, 1 988
b).
Continuous international
cooperation will be needed~to enhance the Pacific Warning System's
capability, and that of regional warning systems. Furthermore,
international cooperation will be needed for sharing the knowledge
on operational procedures of assessment and evaluation that are
being developed, as for example, in French Polynesia, Japan,
Soviet Union, and the United States. We heard some very good
papers in the last few days on new techniques of evaluation and
prediction that can be used by the international community.
Development of Pacific
and Regional Warning Systems
The Pacific Tsunami
Warning System and other regional and national tsunami warning
systems continue to develop their capabilities utilizing computers
and new communications tech~ology. However, high tsunami risk
regions exist in the world where tsunami warnings cannot be issued
in time to be of any usefulness. At least six hazardous tsunamis
have occurred since 1976, with great loss of life and property,
in areas where warnings could not be issued promptly. If appropriate
regional systems existed, warning information could (Pararas-Carayannis,
1982) have been released to the public within minutes permitting
evacuation of most of the coastal population to safer places.
Such regional systems, equipped with proper instrumentation,
can reduce the time needed to evaluate the tsunami hazard, make
decisions, and disseminate the warnings on a regional basis.
Thus, many lives can be saved and damage to property can be reduced.
During the last few years, new operational concepts have been
developed that can improve the performance of a regional tsunami
warning ~v~tern. These concepts utilize modern technology, computers,
and instrumentation, including shore-based seismic and tidal
sensors, and real time telemetry. There is a need for regional
tsunami warning systems, in the South-West Pacific, in South
America, and in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Considering the
regional nature and complex content of such proposed regional
tsunami warning systems, international financial assistance and
expertise are required to implement them. Such support can only
come from international organizations and need the endorsement
and counterpart contributions of national governments. Such regional
projects would have considerable benefits for the countries involved,
and such efforts would be well within the scope and intent of
the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR).
Development of Operational
and Emergency Preparedness
The key element to
tsunami hazard mitigation is a tsunami warning system. But regardless
of how sophisticated a warning system may be, all it can do is
issue a warning. The effectiveness of the system is judged by
what Civil Defense Agencies do with a warning. These agencies
must have an effective Operational and Emergency Preparedness
Plan to act on the warning and disseminate it rapidly and effectively
to the public. This can be done only if there is an established
operating plan designating infrastructural communications and
responsibilities. Furthermore, it is Civil Defense Agencies and
not the Tsunami Warning Centers, that are responsible for establishing
plans for evacuation or other preventative measures to be taken
before a tsunami strikes. Also they have the responsibility for
training their own people by holding frequent exercises and by
educating the public on a continuous basis (Pararas Carayannis,
1988a).
Most of the countries
that are members of the TWS have developed such Operational and
Emergency Preparedness. However, others have not developed or
coordinated adequately their organizational infrastructure so
they can deal effectively with an emergency situation. Obviously,
international cooperation and assistance are required in assisting
such countries with the formulation of a standard emergency operational
plan, with the conduct of Tsunami exercises, and with training
of government officials. This workshop is an example of such
international cooperation but, obviously, it is not sufficient.
Efforts should be made by a Group such as ours, to establish
more frequent training programs and of longer duration, particularly
for developing countries or for countries that have recently
decided to do something about planning for their tsunami hazard.
Manuals and exercise scenarios can be prepared to assist with
training for operational and emergency preparedness.
Development of Planning
and Zoning Criteria
The tsunami risk is
not evenly distributed along a threatened coastline. Because
of the extreme selective nature of tsunami destruction along
given coastlines, the development of planning and zoning criteria
is required for proper coastal management and for population
evacuation during tsunami warnings. Furthermore, the high cost
of coastal land in many areas, dictates an accurate assessment
of the tsunami risk, rather than arbitrary conservative zonation.
Thus there is a need to establish the total risk at any point
along a threatened coastline, as well as the probability of occurrence,
for insurance purposes. A microzonation map of the tsunami hazard
may be required which will be of great usefulness in developing
proper coastal management criteria. For critical areas it may
be necessary to perform detailed numerical modeling studies which
indicate the spatial variation of the tsunami hazard along a
given coastline, where expected tsunami height can be quantified
and evacuation limits designated (Pararas Carayannis, 1988a).
What I propose is international cooperation in this area and
endorsement of a standardized technique for doing this, by an
international group such as ours. This would be consistent with
the scope of IDNDR for the reduction of the tsunami disaster.
Public Education and
Awareness
It is obvious that
the best way of mitigating the tsunami hazard is with a program
of public education and awareness. Because of the infrequency
of tsunamis, the public must be constantly reminded of the potential
hazard. Public informational activities must be sponsored by
governmental authorities on a regular and continuous basis to
assure awareness and public response when a tsunami warning is
issued. Development of appropriate educational materials, such
as brochures, pamphlets and audiovisual materials are necessary
to implement a program of tsunami disaster mitigation. Such educational
materials can be best developed with national and international
support consistent with the objectives of the IDNDR.
References
Pararas-Carayannis,
George, 1982, "The
Effects of Tsunami on Society ", Impact of Science on Society, Vol. 32, No.
1.
Pararas-Carayannis,
George, 1988a, "Risk
Assessment of the Tsunami Hazard", Natural and Man-Made Hazards, 183-191, D. Reidel
Publishing Company.
Pararas-Carayannis,
George, 1 988 b, "
Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific: An Example of International
Cooperation "
, Natural and Man-Made Hazards, 773-780, D. Reidel Publishing
Company.
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