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HAZARDS
98 - An Opportunity and A Challenge for Disaster Mitigation in
the New Millennium
George Pararas-Carayannis
(Excerpts
from a videotaped presentation given at a Plenary Session of
the 7th International Conference on Natural and Man-Made Hazards
(HAZARDS 98) May 17-22, 1998, Chania, Crete, Greece)
Abstract
This Seventh International Conference
(HAZARDS 98), presents a unique opportunity and a challenge for
participants to contribute significantly to plans of action and
national and international policies for measures which will reduce
the adverse impact of Natural and Man-Made Hazards in the new
millennium. The conference's timing, near the close of the Century
and near the end of the International Decade on Natural Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR), presents the challenge of evaluating progress
made during the Decade, identifying remaining needs, and making
appropriate recommendations to national and international organizations
for the implementation of plans for future action beginning with
the year 2,000. This paper summarizes the role of the International
Hazards Society, outlines the significant impact the present
Conference can have on future Disaster Mitigation efforts, and
recommends the drafting of a Resolution.
Introduction and Historical
Perspective
A brief review of
the historical perspective of previous hazards conferences illustrates
their significance and influence in the formation of past IDNDR
initiatives and helps emphasize why the present conference presents
new opportunities and challenges for future international disaster
mitigation efforts.
Hazards 98, is the
latest in a series of biennial symposia, sponsored or co-sponsored
by the International Hazards Society. The first of the Hazards
conferences was held in 1982, in Honolulu, Hawaii under the auspices
of the Tsunami Society. The second one, co-sponsored by the Tsunami
Society, was held in August 1986 at the University of Quebec,
in Rimouski, Canada. The third Conference took place, in August
1988, at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego
and in Ensenada, Mexico. The Fourth Conference was held in August
1991, in Perugia, Italy.
A Hazards Society,
and the role that such a professional society could play in the
mitigation of the effects of natural hazards was conceived back
in the early 1980's, following the 1982 conference we organized
in Hawaii and long before IDNDR was conceptualized or implemented.
However, the idea for a Hazards Society did not materialize into
anything concrete until 1986, when the conference in Rimouski
was held. At that conference, these early ideas culminated into
a concrete plan of action. We agreed to organize the Society
and to co-sponsor actively biannual professional meetings on
Natural Hazards. Immediately thereafter, in 1986, the International
Hazards Society was chartered and incorporated in Hawaii as a
non-profit, professional organization.
The Hazards 88 Conference: With these commitments and goals,
the next Hazards Conference was scheduled in Ensenada, Mexico
in August, 1988, with an opening session at the Scripps Institution
of Oceanography, in San Diego. As Chairman of the International
Committee, I extended invitations to several international organizations
and asked for co-sponsorship and for travel support of participating
international scientists. Also, because of United Nations' interest
in disaster reduction, I extended an invitation to the U.N. Secretary
General to co-sponsor Hazards 88 and to give the opening address.
The U.N. Deputy Secretary General responded to the invitation,
attended Hazards 88, and indeed gave the opening address.
IDNDR and Significance
of Hazards 88: The
Hazards 88 conference was particularly significant for several
reasons. A few months earlier, on 11 December 1987, by resolution
42/169, the U. N. General Assembly designated the 1990's as a
Decade in which the International Community, under the auspices
of the United Nations, would pay special attention to fostering
international cooperation in the field of natural disaster reduction.
Thus, the timing of our conference in Mexico was perfect, as
it gave us the opportunity to endorse the U.N. resolution on
the Decade, and to hold a plenary session on plans and proposals
for its implementation.
In fact, the Hazards
88 Conference declared a resolution of its own and prepared a
special report outlining the methodology on how the Decade could
be implemented. Our resolution focused attention on the developing
countries because it was the lesser-developed countries which
experience losses in human lives and economy disproportionate
to their resources.
Subsequent Developments
in the Implementation of the IDNDR: In the years following the U.N. Resolutions
on IDNDR and the Hazards 88 conference, numerous other important
developments occurred. An intense and concerted international
momentum in disaster mitigation began worldwide under the auspices
of IDNDR, along lines recommended at Hazards 88 and based primarily
on input provided by our Group. Also, following the Hazards 88
conference, many other scientific organizations begun forming
special committees or commissions to coordinate implementation
of the Decade.
IDNDR Begins: In 1990, the United Nations
issued a final Resolution declaring the decade beginning with
1990 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
(IDNDR). As set forth by the resolution, the Decade focused its
attention on earthquakes, windstorms , tsunami, floods, landslides,
volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and insect infestations. Other
developments were the establishment of the IDNDR Secretariat
in Geneva.
The Hazards 91 Conference
in Perugia, Italy, with an expanded theme for the mitigation
of both Natural and Man-Made Disasters, particularly for developing
countries, provided further impetus for international cooperation.
We felt that man-made disasters posed a great threat for mankind
and that it was appropriate for our Group to include them and
to address problems in their mitigation.
Significance
of the 7th International Conference on Natural and Man-Made Hazards
With this historical
perspective and overview, the significance of the 7th International
Conference on Natural and Man-Made Hazards (HAZARDS 98) cannot
be overemphasized. The conference's timing, near the close of
the Century and near the end of the International Decade on Natural
Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), presents a unique opportunity and
a challenge for participants of HAZARDS 98 to contribute significantly
to plans of action and national and international policies for
measures which will reduce the adverse impact of Natural and
Man-Made Hazards in the new millennium. It also presents the
challenge of evaluating progress made during the Decade, identifying
remaining needs, and making appropriate recommendations to national
and international organizations for the implementation of future
action. This is particularly important in view of the fact that,
as the Decade comes to its end with the beginning of the new
millennium, the threat of Natural and Man-Made Hazards impacts
upon mankind with relentless severity and frequency.
In spite of IDNDR,
in the last three years, both natural and man-made disasters
have created havoc and destruction all over the planet. Hundreds
of thousands of lives have been lost. Man-Made disasters caused
by chemical spills, wars and civil strife present now the greater
dangers for mankind.
Increase in Severity
of Natural Disasters:
In spite of mitigation efforts, losses due to natural disasters
will continue to increase because of our continuing population
growth and the increase of the concentration of growth in vulnerable
areas such as coastal regions, flood plains, and seismically
active zones. The percentage of earthquakes causing 1 ,000 +
fatalities has increased by 10% causing approximately 1.4 million
deaths since 1910. In recent years, earthquakes have caused destruction
and have claimed thousands of human lives in Chile, Ecuador,
Indonesia, Japan, Turkey, and more recently, in Afghanistan.
Other Natural Disasters such as heavy rains,
floods and flash floods, have affected the lives of thousands
in Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Benin, China, Korea,
Myanmar, Vietnam. Thailand, Philippines, Turkey, Costa Rica,
Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Somalia, Ghana, Morroco, Togo
and South Africa.
Hurricanes and typhoons
in the Bahamas, Antigua, Barbados, Virgin islands, Puerto Rico,
Phillipines, Vietnam, Madagascar and elsewhere have left thousands
of people dead, injured or homeless. The threat of impending
volcanic disasters in Montserrat and Nicaragua has forced the
evacuation of thousands of people.
Man-Made Disasters
are Taking a Heavier Toll: Man-made hazards have also taken a
heavier toll in recent years. Continuous population growth, has
disturbed the delicate balance between ecosystems on our planet.
We have pollution of the atmosphere and of the seas, destruction
of our rain forests, fires burning out of control, alterations
of sensitive ecosystems, destruction of the ozone layer, climatic
changes we do not fully comprehend.
Man-made disasters
such as chemical spills have polluted rivers and watersheds in
Rwanda, and Guyana. Similarly, In eastern Ukraine, Slovania and
elsewhere, industrial wastes have heavily polluted the drinking
water supply of more than two million people endangering their
health.
Man-Made Disasters
Associated with Industrial Accidents, Civil Strife and War Present
the Greatest Danger for Humanity: Other Man-Made Disasters, calamities associated
with civil strife and war, have killed more than 20 million people
in 150 regional conflicts since 1945 alone. A research Group
of the National Defense Council Foundation, a research group
based in Alexandria, Virginia, U.S.A., cited 70 armed conflicts
in 1994, up from 62 in 1993. The trend is clear, armed conflicts
and complex man-made disaster emergencies, are increasing in
frequency and severity in various parts of the world.
In places like Rwanda,
Burundi, Angola, Zaire, Sudan Somalia, Liberia, Northern Iraq,
Chechnya and former Yugoslavia, man-made disasters caused by
wars and civil strife have claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands
in recent years. Land mines claim the life of an innocent person
every twenty minutes, somewhere in the world.
Conclusions and Recommendations
HAZARDS 98 - An Opportunity
and A Challenge: Major
natural and man-made disasters result in complex humanitarian
emergencies that seriously compromise socioeconomic development
and are creating escalating demands on rapidly diminishing international
resources.
As a result, and in
spite of efforts such as those of IDNDR, more lives will be lost,
more property will be destroyed. But this does not have to be
so. Advances in the science and technology of hazard mitigation
now provide some means to reduce significantly losses. But we,
as scientists, have to commit ourselves to understanding these
natural hazards better and to applying techniques that will reduce
our vulnerability.
Obviously, neither
this Group nor IDNDR can address or solve all of the complex
problems caused by natural and man-made hazards. But within our
limited means and resources we, as scientists, can affect some
changes and improvements for the things that we have some control
over.
We need to explore
the feasibility of concerted scientific and engineering efforts
in reducing the loss of life and property through programs of
public education and of effective early warning systems. We can
improve anti-seismic design, construction and we can retrofit
critical structures in our countries, such as health care facilities
and schools. There are things we can do to improve hurricane
and tsunami early-warning systems and community-based response
to all emergencies. Public educational efforts and rapid communication
networks can be developed or improved for transmitting information
on potential disaster risks and for warning purposes. Certain,
man-made disasters, such as chemical spills or accidents, can
be prevented with proper regulation and supervision of industries
that cause them.
There is a need for
research to identify better and more cost-effective preventive,
disaster mitigation strategies. International efforts must continue
and put equal emphasis on scientific programs, engineering capabilities,
and in the national and international response to humanitarian
and economic needs, particularly for the developing countries
of the world.
Finally, although we may be unable to do much
about the man-made hazards such as those associated with war
and civil strife, we, as scientists and as citizens of this planet,
we have the moral responsibility to raise the consciousness of
our governments to prevent some of these disasters from happening.
(i.g. the fires of the oil fields of Kuwait during the Gulf War)
. Responsible government policies should be aimed at preventing
or mitigating the consequences of armed conflicts on our environment
and on civilian populations .
The Need for a Resolution: HAZARDS 98 presents both an
opportunity and a challenge. The present symposium is very important
in that it can focus attention on these problems and thus raise
the consciousness of our governments and of international organizations
to plans of action that will reduce human suffering from both
Man-Made and Natural Disasters. Scientific societies, and individual
scientists, in a group such as ours, can play an important role
in developing responsible plans for continuous actions in all
aspects of disaster mitigation for the new millennium. The HAZARDS
98 Conference, through its proceedings and through a Resolution
can emphasize the needs, identify new initiatives, and secure
the necessary commitments for the continuity of international
efforts in disaster mitigation.
Although IDNDR will
end, the efforts of the Decade must not stop. The International
Decade has presented a unique opportunity for individual scientists
in many countries to interact, cooperate, and create the framework
which can facilitate the important contributions in mitigating
the adverse effects of disasters. This international framework
which has been created must continue to serve future scientific
activities for the collective benefit of mankind.
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